Cal Poly, UC Davis to join Big Sky Conference

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The much-rumored talk of the Big Sky Conference losing the University of Montana, and perhaps other schools, took on another twist Tuesday.

Big Sky football is expanding.

One of the top conferences in the Football Championship Subdivision, the Big Sky announced that UC Davis and Cal Poly have accepted invitations to become affiliate members in football only, bringing the membership up to 11 teams. A timeline for the switch was not announced, but the move seems feasible for the 2012 season.

UC Davis and Cal Poly have the strongest programs in the five-school Great West Football Conference, which will have to seek new membership or, more likely, fall apart. The majority of UC Davis and Cal Poly teams compete in the Big West Conference.

"The Big Sky is recognized as one of the top Football Championship Subdivision conferences in the nation," Big Sky Conference commissioner Doug Fullerton said in a statement. "The addition of two great institutions like Cal Poly and UC Davis gives us more depth to compete for additional playoff berths and enhances our profile throughout California. This is a great fit for both institutions and the Big Sky Conference. We are bringing in two strong western FCS programs. They will benefit from us in having access to an automatic playoff bid and a full slate of conference games.

"We worked in cooperation with Big West Conference commissioner Dennis Farrell," Fullerton added. "The Big West fully supports this effort, as it gives its two football-playing members a home."

UC Davis and Cal Poly will have to adhere to the withdrawal procedure of the Great West - a process which could take a year. Most of the Big Sky schools have nine or 10 games scheduled for 2011, but the change could happen in 2012.

UC Davis and Cal Poly, which were Division II powers before moving up to Division I, would join Sacramento State as Big Sky programs in California, where high school talent is rich. Both schools have excellent facilities and fan bases.

Cal Poly, whose head coach, Tim Walsh, coached Big Sky member Portland State from 1993-2006, won the Great West championship in 2008, and UC Davis captured it last year. In 2009, UC Davis averaged 9,908 fans for five home games and Cal Poly averaged 9,588 for five home games, which would have ranked fourth and fifth, respectively, among Big Sky programs.

"This is an extremely exciting day for our football program and the institution," UC Davis athletic director Greg Warzecka said. "Our fans will not only be able to watch some great teams come to Aggie Stadium, but they will have a much better opportunity to travel to road games."

"Our goal all along has been to find stability for our football program, and the Big Sky Conference gives us exactly what we needed," Cal Poly athletic director Alison Cone said. "The Big Sky Conference is one of the best FCS conferences in the country and offers great competition with teams that are natural rivals in our region."

Fullerton said the Big Sky will seek future expansion to create a 12-team football conference which would split into two six-team divisions.

The announcement comes during a week in which Cal Poly will host top-ranked Montana and UC Davis will host Portland State.

The nine Big Sky programs in 2009 are Eastern Washington, Idaho State, Montana, Montana State, Northern Arizona, Northern Colorado, Portland State, Sacramento State and Weber State.

Besides UC Davis and Cal Poly, the Great West's members are North Dakota, South Dakota and Southern Utah. The latter three programs could be expansion possibilities for the Missouri Valley Football Conference, which has nine programs.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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