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09/07/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roger Federer continued to roll at the U.S. Open on Monday, this time scoring a straight-set victory over Austrian Jurgen Melzer to reach the quarterfinals.
The second-seeded Federer earned a 6-3, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 win over the No. 13 seed Melzer. The super Swiss has not dropped a set at this fortnight and will next take on Swede Robin Soderling.
The fifth-seeded Soderling took down No. 21 seed Albert Montanes of Spain, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3. Although Federer is 12-1 lifetime against the reigning two-time French Open runner-up, Soderling beat the 16-time Grand Slam champion in the quarterfinals at this year's French Open. That snapped Federer's streak of 23 consecutive Grand Slam semifinal appearances.
I'll be the second straight year the two have met at the U.S. Open. In 2009, Federer won in four tough sets in the quarterfinals.
"I'm looking forward obviously," Federer said. "He's always been a dangerous player. He's able to do it consistently at the highest level and looks like he's going to finish in the top-5 at the end of the year. This is obviously a tough draw for me."
The former world No. 1 Federer titled here from 2004-08 and was last year's runner-up to Argentine slugger Juan Martin del Potro. This year's Aussie Open champ earned his 26th successive Grand Slam quarterfinal.
After finishing off the second set with a powerful forehand, Federer gained a break midway through the third before beating Melzer for a second time this year. Their other match was in the round-of-16 at Wimbledon, also a three-set win for Federer.
Also on Monday, former runner-up Novak Djokovic handled American Mardy Fish, while Frenchman Gael Monfils also moved into the quarterfinals.
The third-seeded Djokovic drubbed a lethargic 19th-seeded Fish in surgeon-like 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 fashion at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Djokovic moved on in 1 hour, 50 minutes by piling up six service breaks against the typically-big-serving Fish.
Fish, who labored here on Labor Day, had won 18 of his previous 20 matches, including a pair of titles and a runner-up finish against Federer at an ATP Masters/U.S. Open Series tournament in Cincinnati.
"It's been a great summer, obviously, for many reasons," Fish said. "Sort of put myself back into a position where I feel like I belong, and I put in a ton of hard work."
The 23-year-old Djokovic will compete in his fourth straight U.S. Open quarterfinal. The steady Serb reached at least the semifinals in his previous three trips to New York, and has reached at least the quarters in 13 of his last 15 Grand Slam events overall.
"I played a great match today, Djokovic said. "Conditions were tough as well with a strong wind. I was using my serve in important moments extremely well and opening the court and kind of not giving him enough chances to come to the net and be aggressive."
Djokovic is a former Australian Open titlist and lost to Federer in the 2007 U.S. Open finale. He'll face an acrobatic Monfils in a quarterfinal here on Wednesday.
The enigmatic Monfils reached his third career, and first-ever U.S. Open, quarterfinal with a hard-fought and entertaining 6-4, 7-5, 7-5 victory over compatriot Richard Gasquet. The 17th-seeded Monfils advanced in 2 hours, 35 minutes by firing 14 aces and breaking Gasquet's serve five times in a match between two of the most talented players on the ATP World Tour.
Monfils is the first Frenchman in 10 years to reach the U.S. Open quarterfinals.
The fourth round concludes on Tuesday with top seed Rafael Nadal, the reigning French Open and Wimbledon champion, continuing his quest for a first U.S. Open title by facing fellow Spaniard Feliciano Lopez. The last time Nadal lost before the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam was at the 2009 French Open.
Another battle of Spanish players has No. 8 Fernando Verdasco playing 10th seed David Ferrer. the other two matches will see 12th-seeded Russian Mikhail Youzhny battling Spain's Tommy Robredo, and 20th-seeded American Sam Querrey battling 25th seed Stanislas Wawrinka of Switzerland.
Due to the matchups, Spain is guaranteed the first all-Spanish quarterfinal in the U.S. Open in the Open Era.
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inch cl
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Burris finished with 226 yards and an
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San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Hundley homered and drove in two runs,
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Edwards confident in reclaiming Bills QB job >>
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) - Shortly after Buffalo Bills coach Chan Gailey finished discussing how much Trent Edwards has improved this preseason, the quarterback in question walked by and took a spot on a bench outside the locker room.``I think he's g
Clark ready to build on 100-catch season >>
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Dallas Clark knows there is no such thing as a perfect game or a perfect season in the NFL.The goal is to keep improving, no matter what the record-breaking stats suggest.So after posting the two best seasons ever by a Colts tigh
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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