Lions seek second straight upset in clash with Argos

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09/08/2010 - Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a huge upset win against the Montreal Alouettes, the British Columbia Lions shoot for back-to-back victories for the first time in 2010 as they entertain the Toronto Argonauts on Saturday afternoon at Empire Field.

The Lions, who defeated Edmonton in the season opener (25-10), had been slipping away ever since and were trapped at the bottom of the Western Division standings with a seven-game losing streak before entering the month of September. A team that is winless at home in four tries thus far, British Columbia caught front-running Montreal at the right time and used the opportunity to come up with a stunning 38-17 win over the Alouettes on the road.

Granted, the Als were without quarterback Anthony Calvillo who was still nursing a chest bruise, but still it was assumed that Montreal had enough quality players to get them by the Lions, yet that wasn't the case at all. Quarterback Casey Printers connected on 14-of-28 passes for 235 yards and a pair of touchdowns, helping offset Travis Lulay who had as many completions to the opposition (two) as he did to his own teammates (2-of-6 for 54 yards). Surprisingly, BC was able to overcome 12 penalties for 115 yards to gather the victory, partly because Montreal was flagged 11 times for a loss of 127 yards.

As for the Argonauts last week, they saw quarterback Cleo Lemon open up the offense and throw for a career-high 350 yards by completing 32-of-44 passes, but he was sacked three times and was guilty of three interceptions as well in his team's 28-13 loss to Hamilton on the road. Toronto kicker Grant Shaw kept the team involved in the first half with field goals of 39 and 16 yards, while running back Cory Boyd tacked on a seven-yard scoring run to cap a nine-play, 63-yard drive in the third period, but it wasn't nearly enough with the number of turnovers the Argos committed.

Boyd finished the game with 54 yards on 11 attempts, but no one else on the team was credited with more than a single carry in the setback. Toronto ended up with a pair of lost fumbles and that defeated a defensive effort that held the Tiger-Cats to just 34 yards rushing on 14 attempts.

Even though he had a lackluster game last week, the fact remains that Boyd is still the leading ground gainer in the CFL after nine games with 846 yards, averaging close to six yards per attempt. For much of the early part of the 2010 campaign the Argos had to lean heavily on Boyd because they were not sure what they'd be able to get out of Lemon, but now they know there is potential in the first-year signal-caller as long as he can cut down on his mistakes. In the first game of the season between these two squads, Lemon threw for 222 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but at he same time he was touched for a pair of interceptions, fumbled once and was sacked three times so really the only way to go is up for him versus the Lions at this stage.

In his first ever game against Toronto, Printers had huge production with three passing scores and one on the ground and his legs have since proven to be a lethal weapon versus the Argos. In two meetings back in 2008, the QB threw for a combined 332 yards but just one TD, while coming up with an even 100 yards on the ground and four majors, so at least Toronto knows what to plan for heading into this weekend.

Unfortunately for Printers and the Lions, 2008 seems like a lifetime ago because this season the passing attack for BC has fallen far short of the mark. At this stage the position has accounted for just seven touchdowns through the air and a league-low 55.2 percent completion rate. Add to that a total of 13 picks and it is easy to see how the program ranks dead last in the CFL in efficiency rating at 68.2.

In a bit of irony Toronto, which has allowed opponents to complete 70 percent of their pass attempts and is giving up a league-high 428.1 ypg, is actually better than the Lions when it comes to scoring defense, allowing 27.0 ppg compared to the 27.1 ppg permitted by BC entering this week's action.

With regards to the all-time, regular-season series between the programs, British Columbia owns a 46-31-2 edge dating back to 1954. The Argos won the most recent meeting earlier this season by a score of 24-20 at home, but that victory for Toronto was the first against the Lions since October 2004 when the team posted a 22-16 triumph. In between Toronto victories, BC had rattled off 10 straight wins in the series.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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