Two-Year-Old Champ Returns to the Races

Horseracing Betting Lines

03/12/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In what could be the sign of the times, Lookin At Lucky, last year's Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old, will have just two prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby. If the Bob Baffert-trained colt winds up crossing the wire first at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, he'll become the fourth straight Kentucky Derby winner with only two previous starts in his three-year-old campaign.

Lookin At Lucky's 2010 journey begins this Saturday in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park as the three time Grade 1 winner hasn't raced since a three- quarter length win over Noble's Promise in the Cash Call Futurity at Santa Anita last December. The son of Smart Strike sports five wins in six career starts, with the lone defeat coming by only a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, a race he began from post 13.

Will he be able to make his return to the track a winning one? If the answer is yes, then he will certainly quiet the critics that say he's just a synthetic specialist that doesn't overpower his rivals with convincing authority. Don't forget, we witnessed a significant number of horses make the transition from Pro-Ride to dirt just one year ago, including I Want Revenge, who rolled in the Gotham Stakes, and Papa Clem, who took care of business in the Arkansas Derby.

Still, both those colts were not making their first start of the year in those races and they weren't also in need of a change in equipment - two strikes against Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. Not only will this be his initial 2010 challenge, but he'll be wearing blinkers for the first time in his career. In addition, the half-brother to Kensei hasn't been tearing up the track in his morning workouts as other Bob Baffert-trained horses usually do.

The jury is still out on just how good Lookin At Lucky really is so it's best to stay away from him on Saturday.

Another Kentucky Derby contender that also begins his three-year-old season in the Rebel is one of Lookin At Lucky's old rivals.

Noble's Promise, who finished within a length of the two-year-old champ in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Cash Call Futurity, has been working much more efficiently of late with a pair of "second fastest of the day" five- furlong works at Gulfstream Park. Moreover, he's already won off a 5 1/2-month layoff in his two-year-old campaign so there's a decent chance he can turn the tables on Lookin At Lucky this Saturday. However, like his nemesis, he'll be racing over conventional dirt for the first time.

One more horse making his 2010 debut in the Rebel is Uh Oh Bango. With two wins and three seconds in five lifetime starts, the underrated gelding, who finished just a neck behind Rule in the Delta Jackpot Stakes last December, is the possible upsetter in the field.

Sired by Top Hit, Uh Oh Bango gets his speed from his dam side but endurance from the sire line. Top Hit's mother is a half-sister to millionaire Vanlandingham (who won this race in 1984) while his granddam is a half-sister to 1980 Belmont Stakes winner Temperence Hill.

Even with the likes of Lookin At Lucky, Noble's Promise and Uh Oh Bango in the race, the smart money should go towards another horse by the name of Dublin.

The son of Afleet Alex was just as impressive in losing the Southwest Stakes on February 20 as Eskendereya was in winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes the same afternoon. It was Dublin's first start since November 1st and his initial race after undergoing throat surgery over the winter.

He must have forgotten how to break from the gate along the way as the D. Wayne Lukas-trained colt got off a step slow and then stumbled three strides later. Approaching the backstretch, the 7-2 third choice found himself a good 12 lengths behind the speedy Conveyance. Dublin then zipped his middle half-mile in a blistering 46 4/5 seconds to close within six lengths around the final turn before losing by less than a length.

Jockey Corey Nakatani will now become his sixth rider in seven starts, and most likely, the second one besides Jamie Theriot to pilot him into the winner's circle.

Selections: 1) Dublin; 2) Noble's Promise; 3) Uh Oh Bango

COULD IT BE A "SUPER" 2010 DEBUT IN FLORIDA?

Another top two-year-old from last year returns to the track on Saturday as Super Saver tackles six other colts in the Tampa Bay Derby. As is the case with Lookin At Lucky, the odds might not be in his favor to pull out the victory, especially since the bay colt has yet to ever defeat a top-notch horse. The best colt he's ever knocked off is William's Kitten, the third-place finisher in the Holy Bull Stakes.

Still, he's widely considered one of the top three-year-olds due to his smashing five-length score in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last November. He might not show his top form off the layoff this Saturday but if he runs back to his lone stakes victory in his final tune up for the Derby, he will definitely be one to watch on May 1st.

The horse everyone's been buzzing about down at Tampa Bay the last few weeks has been Odysseus, who wowed the local crowd with a smashing 15-length victory in an optional claiming allowance race on February 17.

Granted he didn't beat much that day as three of the other five horses in the race were eligible to be claimed, but he did improve his Beyer figure from an 85 (in his maiden victory) to 91. He poses a serious threat to the speedy Super Saver due to his ability to stalk the pace. Plus, he has a race over the Tampa Bay Downs track, which could be a quirky surface to newcomers.

The Sam F. Davis Stakes, the local prep for the Tampa Bay Derby, took place on February 13 and the second (Schoolyard Dreams) and third (Uptowncharlybrown) finishers from that race will take a crack at upsetting the probable top two favorites.

Uptowncharlybrown, who began his career winning his first two starts by a combined 15 lengths, literally walked out of the gate in the Sam F. Davis, spotting the early leaders three full lengths as the field raced by the stands the first time.

The big gangly colt had more trouble keeping up with the field down the backstretch, settling in last place, about six lengths off the pace. He finally kicked it into gear through the stretch missing second by a diminishing length.

A sharper effort is expected on Saturday, particularly after a 35 4/5 three- furlong work from the gate last week and the addition of blinkers. Look for him to be closer to the pace on Saturday, which could give the son of Limehouse an extra boost of confidence heading into the homestretch.

Schoolyard Dreams comes into the race with a pair of bullet workouts over the track. The son of Stephen Got Even should also get a slight jump on both Super Saver and Odysseus as he breaks inside the duo from post four. Still, it will be a tough task holding onto the lead.

Selections: 1) Uptowncharlybrown; 2) Super Saver; 3) Odysseus

CAN CARACORTADO KEEP HIS UNBEATEN STREAK ALIVE?

Caracortado, the California gelding with five consecutive victories, faces a pair of horses he beat in the Robert B. Lewis, along with four newcomers in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

It's hard to find holes in Caracortado's armor considering he has yet to lose, but he did fall into a perfect trip in the Robert B. Lewis, sitting behind fast early fractions that cooked both American Lion and Tiz Chrome.

Fortunately for his connections, that scenario could easily take place once again with Sidney's Candy taking over Tiz Chrome's role in a possible speed duel with American Lion.

Speaking of Sidney's Candy, he's likely to be the second choice in the wagering after annihilating the field in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs. He's by far the fastest horse in the race but this will also be his first try going a distance of ground. If the chestnut colt can ration his speed in this 1 1/16-mile event, he could take the field gate to wire.

The John Sadler-trainee is bred to go long as his sire Candy Ride won the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic and his dam Fair Exchange is the only foal out of Exchange, a multiple Grade 1 winner. Furthermore, Exchange's dam, Wooly Willow, is a half-sister to the 1979 Queen's Plate winner, Steady Growth. Still, it's hard to wire a field around two-turns on Pro-Ride and American Lion won't make things easy for Sidney's Candy on the front end.

Dave in Dixie, the third-place finisher in the Robert B. Lewis has the come- from-behind style to win the San Felipe. However, he might not be good enough to take the top prize.

Interactif, trained by Todd Pletcher, is the wild card in the race. He has done most of his racing on the turf winning a pair of Grade 3 stakes events before running third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He opened his three-year-old season by finishing second to Bim Bam in the Hallandale Beach Stakes at 1 1/16- miles.

Pletcher was mildly successful last year when his Take the Points finished second behind The Pamplemousse in that colt's first venture on Pro-Ride in the Sham. Can he do it again with Interactif?

Selections: 1) Caracortado; 2) Dave in Dixie; 3) Sidney's Candy

SATURDAY SPOT PLAYS

Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta both make their 2010 debuts on Saturday in preparation for next month's colossal showdown at Oaklawn Park, but there are a couple of first-time starters on the Fair Grounds and Santa Anita cards that bear watching.

Trackman, who runs in the seventh race at the Louisiana track, is a three-year- old son of Empire Maker out of Stormy Bear, who's a half-sister to champion turf horse Chief Bearhart. He'll be making his debut at about 1 1/16-miles on the grass and is 6-1 on the morning line.

Race three at Santa Anita for maidens at 6 1/2-furlongs sports Danzing Tribal, a four-year-old gelding by Tribal Rule, whose dam, Danzing Crown, is a half- sister to Chocolate Candy. In addition, Danzing Crown's second dam is a half- sister to the last Triple Crown winner, Affirmed.

Also at Santa Anita, go with an Elegant-Holy Flapper exacta box in race four.

Down in Florida at Gulfstream Park, take the three horse "Hit It Rich" in race 11.

Finally on Sunday, first-time starter Sistine is entered at both Aqueduct (race two) and Philadelphia Park (race five). She'll obviously scratch out of one of those races but she is an important filly to watch as she's a half-sister to The Green Monkey, the $16 million yearling purchased in 2006.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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